Q: How many loans are in active modification or in some form of hardship relief?

With the heightened levels of distress in the mortgage market, you’d “hope” to get a straight answer. Recent analysis showcase how the myriad participants of mortgage-backed securities and their inconsistent methods of tracking/reporting conspire to obscure this essential metric. “Hope” indeed seems to be the strategy.

In a sample 900 loan non-QM securitization, the different participants had pegged the number of mortgages in modification variously at 233, 41, 74 and 261. Given the implications, you’d think it would be somebody’s job to get this right.

Props to dv01 for a dumbfoundingly clear illustration of the faults of this Rube Goldbergian construct. If you’re wondering why Intercontinental Exchange acquired Ellie Mae - giving Thoma Bravo a ~3x return after 16 months in the process - after picking up MERS in 2018, or why Mike Cagney is laboring on Provenance and Figure, this may be a clue.