Tuesday, September 1, 2020

What's driving mortgage origination (beyond refis)?

What’s going on in the market beyond refinances, which comprised nearly two-thirds of 2Q20 mortgage originations?

Purchase: Down 2% y/y... I’m sanguine about near term prospects given the stabilization of existing home sales and boom in housing starts - up 23.4% y/y.

FHA: Share of market at 12-year low... This is a proxy for the near/lower prime, starter home category. I’d be concerned, especially given the plentiful evidence that the current economic stress has been felt disproportionately by those on the lower rungs of the economic ladder. Watch for continued gains in institutional ownership of single family rentals.

HELOC: Down 25% y/y... With rates this low, why bother with a HELOC?

Shout out to Pittsburgh, the only metro area in the country where refinance activity decreased, down 5.7% y/y. Curious...

No comments:

Post a Comment