Headline: U.S. Census Bureau reports 2Q20 homeownership rate soar 260 bps to 67.9%, the highest since 3Q08.
Consideration: Using an estimated US housing stock of 135mm homes, that’s a +3.5mm move over a single quarter. The bureau did note that “a change in methodology that could have impacted the numbers. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, in-person interviews were suspended and most of the survey was conducted by telephone.”
Even the generally cheerful National Association of REALTORS® chief economist Lawrence Yun noted, “Usually homeownership data moves at more of a glacier-slow pace, so to see a sudden move like this was quite surprising. Some of this increase could be due to the change in data measurement.”
The second quarter ended with a strong yet not uniformly blowout June, with a 13 year high in new home sales and a +20.7% m/m in existing home sales boosted by an 18.2% y/y drop in existing home supply. While I’m upbeat about 2Q20 residential housing trends, I’d keep the champagne on ice until we get further details about the impact of the new methodology.
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