Thursday, July 23, 2020

WSJ: Existing home sales up 20.7% month-over-month

More appropriate headline: “Existing home sales up 20.7% month-over-month from a coronavirus-induced trough.”

A better indicator of the strength of housing is that, while seasonally-adjusted annual sales of existing homes was down 12.4% year-over-year, the supply of those same homes was down 18.2% from a year ago.

Looking ahead, assuming you believe that housing trends will revert to normal, reasonable given the size of Millennial/Gen-Z cohort just getting into their housing formation years, we may be seeing a "squeezing of the balloon" - the air gets pushed down for now, but doesn't disappear.

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